[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201947
SWODY1
SPC AC 201945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW HUM 50 WNW GZH
10 SSW ATL 40 SW SOP 40 ENE HSE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES AND FL. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NRN FL
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...INCREASING
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL HELP DESTABILIZATION.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TALLAHASSEE
LATE TONIGHT SHOW STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN NRN FL LATE TONIGHT.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 850 MB FLOW AROUND 50 KT COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
CONSIDERING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 20 KT ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN FL. IF A TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPS...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT PARALLEL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HAVE ACCESS TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.

..BROYLES.. 11/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.