[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201627
SWODY1
SPC AC 201625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW HUM 45 WSW SEM
15 SW ANB 20 W ATL 25 NNW MCN 45 SW AGS 10 ESE AGS 15 E CAE FLO 35
NW ILM 50 SE OAJ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NNELY JET STREAK OVER KS IN MORNING RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS
THAT UPR LOW NOW OVER SW MO SHOULD AMPLIFY SWD THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS WHICH MOVES THE
SYSTEM INTO NE LA BY 12Z MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN GULF NOW NEAR 26.5N/87.5W EXPECTED TO DRIFT
ONLY SLOWLY NE TODAY.  THE FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND
ACCELERATE NEWD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPR TROUGH.  FARTHER NE...AN ADDITIONAL BUT PROBABLY
WEAKER SURFACE CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM ALONG COASTAL TROUGH E OF
KCHS/KMYR.

...NRN/WRN FL...
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM S TO
N ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY/TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM FRONT NOW NEAR
LK OKEECHOBEE REDEVELOPS NWWD. THE FRONT SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO
CIRCULATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ERN GULF LOW AND REACH THE BIG BEND
AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.  THIS SETUP WOULD ALLOW MOIST...MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE /MUCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ AIR TO SPREAD N INTO NRN FL AND
PERHAPS FAR SRN GA.

DEEP SSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS OVER THE NERN GULF
EARLY MONDAY AS UPR SYSTEM AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SSE INTO LA. 
ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND INCREASING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE MAY SUPPORT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY
MONDAY INVOF WARM FRONT...AND ALONG ANY EXISTING WARM SECTOR
CONFLUENCE BANDS OVER THE NERN GULF.  IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO FORM
...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

IN THE MEAN TIME...SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TODAY S OF WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND
NEAR WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH INTERSECTION ALONG THE E CST. 
RELATIVELY WARM LAYER NEAR/ABOVE 500 MB MAY DELAY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.  TONIGHT...ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N
FL...ADJACENT PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF CST...AND INTO PARTS OF GA/SC
AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPR TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.