[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210056
SWODY1
SPC AC 210055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW HUM 50 WNW GZH
10 SSW ATL 40 SW SOP 55 ENE HSE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE
OZARKS TO ERN TX...WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS SEWD AND
BECOMES NEUTRALLY ORIENTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS FORECAST
PERIOD DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SERN STATES WILL LIKELY INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST...NEAR
CHS...LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

...NRN/WRN FL...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SURFACE
WAVE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N 87W OR 190 SSW AAF...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL.  AN EXTENSION OF THE
COASTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDED SWWD ACROSS
NRN FL TO THE SURFACE WAVE OVER THE GULF.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE CENTRAL FL WARM FRONT TO MOVE
NWD AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE NRN FL SURFACE BOUNDARY.  

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AS IT APPROACHES THE FL BIG BEND REGION LATE TONIGHT.  THIS LOW MAY
MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE GA/FL BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH ATTENDANT
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SPREADING INLAND OVER NWRN FL. 
DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO NRN FL WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS.

...COASTAL SC...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER COASTAL SERN SC ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60 F...
WITH VALUES FARTHER S OVER COASTAL GA/NERN FL INTO THE LOWER 60S. 
SSELY LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT JUST OFF THE SC COAST AS
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF CHS.  IF THE COASTAL
BOUNDARY AND MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ARE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND ALONG
THE SC COAST TOWARD 12Z...THEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS OCCURRENCE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR COASTAL SC.

..PETERS.. 11/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.