[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201239
SWODY1
SPC AC 201238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE 7R4 20 ESE BTR
25 SSE PIB 25 SW MAI 15 SSE MGR 35 NNW SAV 30 NNW CRE 30 SE ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN FL...
UPPER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOWER MO VALLEY SWWD TO
SWRN TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD. BY LATER TONIGHT
MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS INTO
UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES THAT TROUGH WILL SWING EWD ACROSS
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD ACROSS SERN STATES.

IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
TONIGHT OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO ON OLD FRONTAL ZONE THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES WWD FROM CENTRAL FL ACROSS THE GULF. WHILE THE DEEPENING
OF THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER 12Z
MON...MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER INLAND
TO VICINITY OF GA/FL BORDER BY LATER TONIGHT.

THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING FRONTAL ZONE NWD ACROSS FL TO NEAR GA
BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW A MOIST BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO SPREAD NWD AS WELL.

HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY OF BOTH TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
INLAND. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED
IN THE WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH
AND N OF WARM FRONT.  HOWEVER WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED
STORMS AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS VICINITY OF WARM FRONT/AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW LATE TONIGHT.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 11/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.