[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 200549
SWODY1
SPC AC 200547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S 7R4 20 ESE BTR
25 SSE PIB 40 SW DHN 15 SSE MGR 30 SE VDI 30 W CHS 55 S CRE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE 00Z NAM/GFS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SPEED OF POSITIVELY TILTED CENTRAL U.S. MID LEVEL TROUGH TODAY AS IT
MOVES SWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AND THEN BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED
TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.  THE GFS
REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER/DEEPER WHICH AFFECTS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO SRN GA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  GIVEN THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH EACH
RUN...THIS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS CLOSER TO THE NAM WHICH TAKES THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE NERN GULF OFF THE FL COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF CENTRAL GULF CYCLOGENESIS AND WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SERN U.S./FL WILL SUPPORT THE NWD MOVEMENT
OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY.

...COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL GULF TO SE U.S./FL...
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z
AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.  A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...BUT
GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.  ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY OFFSHORE OF SC TO ERN FL ALONG THE COASTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT
MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO NRN FL AND INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AS ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...IF THE WARM SECTOR IS ABLE
TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...THEN
THERE WOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOWARD 12Z
MONDAY OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NWRN FL. GIVEN MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS OUTCOME...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE
INTRODUCED.

..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 11/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.