[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 200101
SWODY1
SPC AC 200059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SRQ 30 E SRQ 30
NW AGR 30 WSW DAB 25 SW SSI 20 E SAV 55 ESE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 50 S ALI 15
S NIR 10 SSW VCT 10 NNE PSX 40 SSE GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S COASTAL TX...
POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM. 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
ACROSS THE NWRN GULF WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING
SWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER SE TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY.  THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF A COASTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OFF THE TX COAST...GIVEN DEEP LAYER ASCENT. 
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE...WITH 00Z
SOUNDINGS AT CRP/BRO SUGGESTING ANY INLAND STORMS WILL BE ROOTED
BETWEEN 600-650 MB.

...SRN FL...
18Z GFS APPEARS TO BE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH TPC GUIDANCE FOR T.S
GAMMA...AND THE LIMITED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW
LOCATED S OF THE FL PENINSULA. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWED A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SC COAST SWWD TO
THE COAST OF NERN FL.  E/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN INTO CENTRAL
FL WILL MAINTAIN MOIST ADVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF
AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITHIN WAA REGIME.

..PETERS.. 11/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.