[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191629
SWODY1
SPC AC 191627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW SRQ 35 W AGR 20
SW SGJ 35 NNE SGJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 40 SSE ALI
10 NE ALI 10 SSW VCT 10 NNE PSX 45 SSE LBX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUN MORNING. DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF AROUND
200 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED AT 700 MB AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRED AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...AS LEAD WAVE CONTINUES EWD INTO THE
RIDGE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND THUNDER APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

...SRN FL...
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST PROFILES AT MFL AND EYW WITH DEEP ELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE HEATING AND LAND/SEA CONVERGENCE WILL HELP
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FL THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...EFFECTS OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
AND PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY HELP TO INCREASE STORM
COVERAGE ALONG THE CENTRAL FL EAST COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN.

...S COASTAL TX...
THICK CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAPPED LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WILL
PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER LOW SINKS SWD AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG OR
JUST OFFSHORE S TX.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 11/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.