[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161953
SWODY1
SPC AC 161951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE
ILM 45 SE CLT 30 ENE HKY 40 W DCA 40 W ABE 30 NW ALB 70 NNW EFK
...CONT... 60 N EFK 20 ENE MPV 25 WNW CON 20 W BOS 40 S ACK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AAF 30 ENE ABY
20 NNW GSP 45 NNE SHD 20 ESE IPT 35 NE UCA 75 NNE MSS ...CONT... 50
E SGJ 70 NW PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NC THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND THE NERN STATES...

...NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES...

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NY SWWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 HAVE ADVECTED AS
FAR NWD AS SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
MUCAPES RANGE FROM BELOW 250 J/KG OVER NEW ENGLAND TO AOB 800 J/KG
OVER CNTRL AND ERN NC. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
CURRENTLY OVER NY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TODAY AWAY FROM THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY FARTHER SWD...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL
LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...LOW TOPPED FORCED LINES OF STORMS MAY
STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
FARTHER SWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NC WILL BE WEAKER THAN OVER
THE NERN STATES BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF CONVECTION. SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY E OF THE APPALACHIANS. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.