[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161614
SWODY1
SPC AC 161612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
EFK 25 ENE PSF 35 SW GON ...CONT... 20 E ILM 35 SE CLT 40 NNE HKY 25
NNW LYH 10 SE SYR 10 NW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PNS 25 NE TOI
60 NW AND 15 WNW BKW 15 NE PIT 50 W BUF ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB 55 NNW
PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...

...NORTHEAST/WRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY/NERN PA...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS PRIMARILY NEWD
INTO ERN CANADA WITH TAIL-END OF DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREADING ERN NY
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  TWO NARROW LINES OF
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN EVIDENT THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL
PA.  HOWEVER...WRN MOST LINE APPEARS TIED TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND WILL LIKELY BECOME DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON. 
INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION THAN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH AND MAY HINDER OVERALL THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT. 
HOWEVER... STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND TEMPERED
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2447 FOR MORE
DETAIL/.  EWD EXTENT OF ANY RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY CURRENT WEDGE
FRONT NOW PULLING NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND EWD INTO VT.

...SERN NY/ERN PA SWWD INTO THE PIEDMONT...
FARTHER SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...DEEP ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER WITH
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BEING DRIVEN MORE BY LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG
APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING
THIS FRONT EWD TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SEWD INTO SERN
VA/CENTRAL NC BY THE EARLY EVENING.  MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES MODEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM FAR
SERN NY INTO ERN VA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.  THIS
WILL OVERCOME WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON MORNING RAOBS
AND SHOULD BOOST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLD IN
THE 60S.  THUS...EXPECT INCREASING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR THE
FRONT FROM CENTRAL/ERN PA SWWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
AND MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD
INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS LINE MOVES EWD AND
BUILDS SWWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 11/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.