[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170044
SWODY1
SPC AC 170042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
ECG 45 WNW ECG 25 ENE AVC 10 WSW RIC 15 W NHK 25 NNW SBY 50 SSE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ILM 30 NNE CRE
40 WSW SOP 10 SSE DAN 45 ENE CHO 15 N PHL 50 ESE ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A
BIT ACROSS SE VA INTO SERN MD ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EAST AT ROUGHLY 25KT...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL
CELL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT QUICKER TO THE NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  00Z
SOUNDING FROM WAL REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800J/KG.  GIVEN THAT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...BOW
TYPE STRUCTURES REMAIN POSSIBLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. RIC RECENTLY OBSERVED A GUST TO 33KT AS CONVECTIVE LINE
PASSED THAT AREA.  WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SHIFTING NORTH INTO SERN
CANADA...AND THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...THE OVERALL THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WANING.

..DARROW.. 11/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.