[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161301
SWODY1
SPC AC 161300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
ILM 25 SW SOP 45 NNE HKY 15 E BLF 15 NNE EKN 25 S DUJ 35 NNE BFD 30
SW MSS 30 ENE SLK 10 NNW BAF 55 SE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MLB 30 SSW APF
...CONT... 50 SSW PNS 25 NE TOI 60 NW AND 15 WNW BKW 15 NE PIT 50 W
BUF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM VA/NC NWD TO NY....

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
THIS PERIOD.  WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AN EMBEDDED STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/120 KT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED CYCLONE
WILL LIFT NNEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WRN QUEBEC.  S/SE OF THE
OCCLUDED LOW...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS...REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TONIGHT.  THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
DAMAGING WINDS TODAY.

...NY TO VA/NC TODAY...
A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN
NY/CENTRAL PA/WRN VA THIS MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY 75 MILES W OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
BAND.  THIS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND DOES COMPLICATE THE
SCENARIO A BIT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE CLOUD/RAIN BAND AND W OF THE WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER/RELATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY. STILL...ROUGHLY MOIST
NEUTRAL PROFILES AND 50-60 KT SSWLY FLOW WITHIN 1-2 KM OF THE GROUND
MAY SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WITH A NARROW LINE OF FORCED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.