[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160547
SWODY1
SPC AC 160545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE
CHS 15 WNW CHS 30 ENE SPA 25 SSE BUF 50 NE ROC 45 W GFL 15 SSW BDL
55 SE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MLB 30 SSW APF
...CONT... 65 SE GPT 30 SSE SEM 30 S RMG 50 ESE LOZ 25 SE ZZV 20 NNW
YNG 50 NNW ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NY/PA SWD INTO
THE CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WILL
PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT
INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE NERN GULF COAST AT THE
ONSET OF THE FORECAST WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
THURSDAY MORNING. 

...NY/PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...

STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY
AT 16/12Z ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY/PA SWD INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS.  POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW MODEL
DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NY/PA WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH
STORMS BEING DRIVEN BY THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND PERHAPS A MAUL.  DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...VERY
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CLOUD-BEARING MEAN WINDS
AOA 50-60 KTS INDICATE THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THAT CAN REACH THE SURFACE.  

SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE LATER TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO THE
DELMARVA AND PERHAPS SERN PA/NJ.  EXPECT ONGOING STORMS TO INTENSIFY
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THIS AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN
INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.  THOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE WILL
REMAIN LARGELY LINEAR...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH A RESULTANT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OWING
TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 11/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.