[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160047
SWODY1
SPC AC 160045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV 30
E OWB 30 NNW SDF 55 W LUK 20 W LUK 35 SE LUK 30 N LOZ 45 SW LOZ 30
WNW CHA 25 NW HSV 45 NNW MSL CKV.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
HOP 25 ENE OWB 25 SW MIE 25 WSW TOL 35 SSE DTW CLE 15 SSE ZZV 20 W
TYS 20 NE TCL 10 SSW CBM 20 WNW TUP 10 SW HOP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
GLS 30 ENE HOU 25 S POE 35 ENE MLU 20 WNW UOX 45 NE MKL LAF SBN 10
NNE AZO 20 SE MBS 55 ENE BAX ...CONT... 45 N ROC 25 ESE LBE 30 SSW
PSK 15 NNE CSG 15 N CEW 35 SSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MFE 40 ESE LFK
25 NNW MLU MEM 25 SSE MTO 35 NNW DNV 20 SSE RAC 35 NNW MBL 25 NNW
PLN 30 E ANJ ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 50 E BFD HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25
ENE EWN 10 NNE ILM FLO CAE 40 WSW AGS 35 ENE ABY 35 SSE AAF.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER MIDDLE TN...CNTRL
KY INTO SERN IND...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER ERN IND...MUCH OF
OH//KY/TN...NERN MS AND NRN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS THIS EVENING***

...SYNOPSIS...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORK
INDICATE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100-110 KT JET STREAK FROM NRN OK/SRN KS
NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER NRN IL/SRN WI WITH ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL NY. 
TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED FROM THIS SWD THROUGH THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

COMPLEX...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING
FROM IND/OH SSWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ARE
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOWING AND
LEWP STRUCTURES.  CURRENTLY MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EXIST
ACROSS SRN KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN WHERE SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED
SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENTLY BEING OBSERVED.  HERE...IMMEDIATE
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z BNA SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA 400
M2/S2. CORRIDORS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
LIKELY TONIGHT AS CONVECTIVE MODE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE
LINEAR.

FARTHER TO THE N OVER ERN IND INTO OH...CONVECTIVE MODE HAS
TRANSITIONED FROM SUPERCELLULAR TO MORE LINEAR OVER THE PAST HOUR
WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY.  GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS...THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND CORRIDORS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD.

OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF COAST...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
JAN AND BMX INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER
WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 13 G/KG.  DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS MOISTURE WAS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THOUGH
SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS ERN MS
INTO WRN AL REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH 00Z BMX
SOUNDING INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 250 M2/S2. 
THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES.

..MEAD.. 11/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.