[SWODY1] SWODY1

Tue Nov 15 19:56:05 UTC 2005

ACUS01 KWNS 151951
SWODY1
SPC AC 151950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM POF 20
NW SLO 20 WNW DNV 40 SSE SBN 35 ENE FWA 30 SSE DAY 30 SE BWG 15 E
MSL 40 SSW CBM 30 SSE GLH PBF POF.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLV 30
NE BMI 20 S CGX 20 NE BEH 20 E FNT 35 NE CLE 40 WSW UNI 35 NE HSV 25
ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 30 NE IER 10 ESE ELD 20 N
ARG BLV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW
ROC LBE BLF LGC 30 SE MOB 40 SW BVE ...CONT... 30 S GLS 30 NNW PSX
55 SSW CLL 15 SSE CLL 10 NW LFK 15 E SHV LIT SPI 25 WNW MMO 30 E JVL
10 ENE MBL 65 E APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW LRD 35 NNW LFK
30 SSE TXK 30 WSW BVX 20 WNW SPI 35 NW BRL 10 ESE VOK 40 SSW ESC 35
NNW PLN 15 E ANJ ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 50 E BFD HGR 20 S DCA 35 S
NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 NNE ILM FLO CAE 40 WSW AGS 35 ENE ABY 35 SSE AAF.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NRN
MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL...IN...SWRN OH AND WRN KY...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA
SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI AND THE WRN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE WRN GULF COAST...

...E TX/LWR MS VLY NEWD INTO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS...
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR STL AT 19Z AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
DEEPENING AND LIFTING THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY NEWD TO NEAR CHI BY
00Z...AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN IL/IN INTO OH AND WILL
LIFT NWD TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT...FROM ERN MO SWWD
INTO ERN/SRN TX...RACES EWD THROUGH THE OHIO/TN AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS.

IN THE WARM SECTOR...A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
PRESENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO MO THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A  110
KT MID LEVEL JET MAX. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TITLED AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...SOME
TORNADIC...WERE ONGOING FROM ERN MO/IL SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC
HEATING AND THE STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM  1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD FAVOR NUMEROUS
SUPERCELLS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 1KM SHEAR FROM 25-40 KT INDICATES TORNADOES ARE ALSO
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN AR/WRN TN NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING/ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS...THE QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND VERY STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS...SUGGEST THAT LONG TRACK AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REFER TO TORNADO
WATCHES...864...865...866 AND 867.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NWD THIS EVENING...THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD INTO
THE NRN HALF OF THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS SERN TX/LA/ERN AR AND MS. LONG AND SLIGHTLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS PLUS LACK OF STRONG LINEAR ASCENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
SUPERCELLS WITH LONG TRACK TORNADOES. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO
SUPPORT SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

WHILE THE MS/OH VLY STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
SEVERAL BROKEN SEGMENTS/SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS 
TONIGHT...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST THE STORMS MAY
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE. AS A RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE UPR OH VLY AND THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

..IMY.. 11/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.