[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151630
SWODY1
SPC AC 151628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
FLP 35 WNW FAM 25 NNE CMI 40 SSE SBN 35 ENE FWA 30 SSE DAY 15 ESE
BNA MSL 45 NNW MEI 30 SSE GLH 15 SSW LIT 20 ESE FLP.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
UNO 45 NW STL 30 WSW VPZ 30 NNE BEH 30 ENE FNT 35 NE CLE 40 WSW UNI
35 NE HSV 25 ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 40 NE IER 35
ESE TXK 35 NE DEQ 20 WNW UNO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
BUF 25 WSW LBE 30 E TRI 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 45
ESE GLS 30 NNW PSX 25 SSE AUS 35 NNW AUS 20 SSE CRS 35 SSE PRX 30 SE
RKR 45 WNW UNO 30 SSE IRK 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD
10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE
40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF ...CONT... 40 SSE 6R6 55 SSE BWD 30
ESE DAL 15 WNW RKR 10 NW TOP 40 SE SDA 40 SSE CWA 40 SSW ESC 35 NNW
PLN 25 E ANJ.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
VLYS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO LWR MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LWR MI AND THE WRN SLOPES
OF THE APLCNS TO THE WRN GULF CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
INTO A DEEP YET PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW.  THE LOW SHOULD REACH ERN LK
SUPERIOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK
SWEEPS NNE FROM SE KS/SW MO TO LK HURON.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW
IN S CNTRL MO SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO E OF KSTL BY EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING MORE NNE ACROSS KCHI AND KSSM TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE LOW ATTM IS SOMEWHAT SEGMENTED
...WITH SHALLOW RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LOCATED S OF MAIN FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND LIFT RAPIDLY N INTO SRN LWR MI LATER
TODAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES E ACROSS THE MID/LWR MS
VLY.  THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N INTO SW ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.

...E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS...
BROAD SWATH OF SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /850 MB
DEWPOINTS AOA 12C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S/
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NNE IN WIDE WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING MO
SURFACE LOW.  COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP SWLY SHEAR ALREADY IN
PLACE FROM SRN MI AND MUCH OF THE OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY...STAGE
WILL BE SET FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES...HIGH WIND AND HAIL.

MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER WRN AR.  THIS SHOULD HEIGHTEN SEVERE RISK
AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES EWD AND DEVELOPS SWD INTO E TX/LA
LATER TODAY.  70-80 KT DEEP SHEAR AND QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN QUASI-DISCRETE
DESPITE LINEAR FORCING AND ORIENTATION OF FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
SHEAR. THUS...STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION
TO HIGH WIND/LARGE HAIL.

OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT FROM ERN AR/NRN MS N ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO PARTS OF
KY/IND/OH AND SRN MI.  PRESENCE OF VERY LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED
HODOGRAPHS AND ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR ASCENT MAY YIELD A FEW
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.  SETUP SHOULD ALSO
SUPPORT NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL.

WHILE THE MS/OH VLY STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
SEVERAL BROKEN SEGMENTS/SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE
INFLOW ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN... AT LEAST IN
PART...QUASI-DISCRETE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RISK OF WIDESPREAD HIGH
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REACH AS FAR E/NE AS THE UPR OH VLY
AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.