[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151244
SWODY1
SPC AC 151243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
FLP 35 WNW FAM 25 NNE CMI 10 N LAF 15 WNW MIE 20 N SDF 10 SW BNA MSL
45 NNW MEI 30 SSE GLH 15 SSW LIT 20 ESE FLP.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
HRO 30 WSW SPI 25 N VPZ 35 SSW JXN 40 SE FWA 30 N LEX 15 NNE HSV 25
ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 40 NE IER 35 ESE TXK 40 WSW
RUE 15 WNW HRO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
GLS 55 S CLL 25 ENE AUS 40 NW TPL 25 ENE SEP 10 S DUA 20 NNE MLC 35
W GMJ 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN ...CONT... 25 N ERI 50 WSW EKN 30
SE TRI 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD
10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE
40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE AAF ...CONT... 65 WNW LRD 55 SSE BWD 10
SW ADM 10 SW BVO 20 NNE FNB 25 SSW MCW 30 W CWA 10 WSW IMT 60 W ANJ
25 E ANJ.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE
EVENING FOR ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...SE MO...WRN KY...SRN IL...AND
WRN INDIANA....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
CENTRAL MS AND NE AR NNEWD TO THE INDIANA/MI BORDER....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI
AREA....

*** AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY *** 

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVER
WRN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD/NEWD TO
AR/MO/IL BY THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME NE OK WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NEWD ALONG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY SGF TO STL TO ORD THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  S OF THE LOW...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE/ IS
SPREADING NWD ACROSS E TX/SE OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...S OF A
WARM FRONT ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER AND WWD ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. 
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS...BENEATH 7 C/KM MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
NRN EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY BY THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL LIFT NWD
TODAY ACROSS IL/INDIANA/OH AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NEWD
ACROSS MO.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING ACROSS ERN
OK/WRN AR AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  THE
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR THROUGH MIDDAY...AND
DEVELOP SWWD INTO NE TX...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO ALSO INCREASE BY
16-18Z ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR/SE MO WITH THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...ALONG WITH
MOIST PROFILES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400
M2/S2...ALL SUGGEST THAT LEWP/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH TORNADOES
AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE.  THESE THREATS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS AR/SE MO
THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EWD/NEWD FROM THERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  

SEPARATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER E WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR/MOISTURE AXIS IN THE FORM OF SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL BANDS
ACROSS ERN AR AND MS NNEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW INTENSE/DAMAGING
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR FROM CENTRAL MS/AR NNEWD ACROSS WRN TN/KY TO SRN IL AND
SRN/CENTRAL INDIANA.

BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXHAUST
WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MODE OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE A FORCED SQUALL LINE WITH A
CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.