[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150557
SWODY1
SPC AC 150555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
FLP 35 WNW FAM ALN 30 WSW MTO 15 W BMG 20 SW SDF 10 SW BNA 30 NW MSL
10 N UOX 60 SW MEM 30 N LIT 10 SSW FLP.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
FYV 30 WSW SPI 35 ESE MMO 30 ESE SBN 40 SE FWA 30 N LEX 20 WSW HSV
30 S CBM 35 S GLH 20 ENE TXK 35 N DEQ 15 W FYV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW
ERI 30 SSW CRW 20 NE HSS 10 E LGC 30 SE MOB 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 45
ESE GLS 55 S CLL ACT TUL 20 E JVL 10 ENE MBL 75 E APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW LRD 55 SSE BWD
10 SW ADM 10 SW BVO 25 NNW STJ 35 S MCW 30 W CWA 10 WSW IMT 60 W ANJ
25 E ANJ ...CONT... 55 WNW ART 50 E BFD 10 WNW HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK
25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 S FLO 15 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 40 SSE
AAF.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN
IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...FAR NRN MS AND NERN AR...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SERN
MO...CNTRL/ERN IL...MUCH OF IND...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE
TN...NWRN AL AND NRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWD
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE
OH RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
AS THIS OCCURS...100-110 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS MO/IL AND INTO THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM SWRN MO AT
15/12Z...TO NEAR STL AT 15/18Z AND INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR ONTARIO
BY 16/12Z.  ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOW SITUATED FROM CNTRL OK/AR NEWD
TO ALONG THE OH RIVER WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD AHEAD OF THIS LOW WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS...TN AND OH
VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


...GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

15/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS IN PLACE FROM THE NWRN/CNTRL GULF COAST NWD INTO THE WRN TN AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS WITH 60 DEWPOINTS NOW TO THE OH RIVER.  PERSISTENT
AND STRONG SWLY LLJ OF 50-60 KTS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
SRN GREAT LAKES WILL AID THE RAPID NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FORECAST AS FAR
N AS NRN IND BY 16/00Z.  DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AROUND MOIST ADIABATIC...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND
500 J/KG ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.

STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM ERN OK/SERN KS EWD ACROSS AR AND SRN MO.  WHILE MANY OF
THIS STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...A
FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED WITHIN A MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED
BOUNDARY-LAYER.  INDEED...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR ERN OK
AND AR VALID 15/12-15Z INDICATE A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-55 KTS AND 0-1
KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.

THUS...EXPECT THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WILL EXIST FROM ERN OK ACROSS AR INTO SRN MO. FARTHER
TO THE N AND E...STORMS MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/SEVERITY IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SRN IL SWWD INTO AR AS DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE SURFACE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR.  DEVELOPING MODERATE
INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.  IN ADDITION TO THIS ENHANCED TORNADO
THREAT...LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING AND LEWP STRUCTURES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT WITH A DISTINCT THREAT OF A SERIAL
TYPE DERECHO WIND EVENT ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY PUSH THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 11/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.