[SWODY1] SWODY1

Tue Nov 15 00:55:39 UTC 2005

ACUS01 KWNS 150051
SWODY1
SPC AC 150050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
SZL 30 ENE JEF 25 NE SLO 35 SE IND 25 NW LUK 50 ENE LEX 15 SW LOZ 15
SSW CSV 25 S HSV MEI 20 SSE SHV 40 NNW TYR 20 ESE ADM 40 NW BVO 25
SSE EMP 20 WSW SZL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW DRT 25 SSW SJT
15 ENE ABI 15 NE SPS 25 NW CHK 40 SSW AVK 40 NNW GAG 20 NW CAO 35 N
CEZ 40 SE VEL 40 WNW FCL 35 SSE SNY 25 N HLC 20 ENE CNK 20 NNW CDJ
25 W PIA 50 ESE MMO 40 SSW JXN 65 NE MTC ...CONT... 55 NW BUF 30 SE
LBE 35 SW AHN 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 65 S PSX 50 WNW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE SAV 30 S OGB 40
WSW SOP 35 ESE DAN 40 WSW ORF 55 E ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM SERN KS/ERN
OK/NERN TX INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD IMPULSE TRANSLATING NEWD INTO
THE SWRN GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL ROCKIES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN DIGGING THIS LATTER SYSTEM SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
OVERSPREADING WRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO LEAD IMPULSE IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER FAR SRN IL WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
THROUGH NRN KY INTO CNTRL WV.  A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ALSO
EXISTS FROM THIS LOW NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IND INTO W-CNTRL OH.  A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA SWWD
ALONG THE MS RIVER THEN WWD THROUGH CNTRL AR WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A WARM FRONT ACROSS W-CNTRL AR AND CNTRL OK.  MEANWHILE...PRIMARY
SURFACE CYCLONE WAS DEEPENING OVER ERN CO WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT
WAS SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS.

...SERN KS/ERN OK/ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS ADJUSTMENT IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM AND DEEPENING
CO SURFACE LOW.  REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA HAS
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS
WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PW DATA SHOWING A RAPID
NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT.

ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT
WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME /LIKELY ALONG NOSE OF RETURNING ELEVATED
MOISTURE SOURCE/ OVER E-CNTRL OK INTO NRN AR AND SRN MO.  THIS
ACTIVITY FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
NERN OK AND NRN AR/SRN MO...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ.  STRENGTHENING VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A BUOYANT BOUNDARY-LAYER.  STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME FIRMLY
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER.

ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS INTO TN AND OH VALLEYS WITHIN
BROADENING/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING CNTRL CONUS SYSTEM.  00Z JAN SOUNDING
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ OVERNIGHT
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHEAR THROUGH THE OBSERVED RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN
THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER...WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...GIVEN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENENCE OF MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 11/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.