[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 142007
SWODY1
SPC AC 142005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
SZL 15 NE VIH MVN 30 SSE BMG 10 SW LUK 50 ENE LEX 20 SE LOZ 35 NE
CHA 35 WNW RMG 20 WSW CBM SHV 45 NNW TYR 10 E DUA BVO 25 SW CNU 35
SSW SZL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW BUF 30 SE LBE
35 SW AHN 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 65 S PSX 50 WNW LRD
...CONT... 40 WSW DRT 25 SSW SJT 15 ENE ABI 35 ENE SPS 10 NNW OKC 15
W END 25 NNW GAG 35 E RTN 25 E GUC 40 NNE GJT 20 SSE BPI 35 E JAC 35
NNE WRL 20 NW DGW 10 S BFF 10 SSW HLC 40 SE SLN 35 NE MKC 40 NW SPI
30 NNW DNV FWA 50 ENE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE SAV 40 S OGB 20
WSW FLO 20 ENE FAY 10 N OAJ 100 ESE ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF OK THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...EXTREME ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN TN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AR. S OF THIS
BOUNDARY...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF HAS SPREAD NWD INTO
ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. WV IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL
JET OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THAT WILL SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THIS
BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT. STORMS CROSSING INTO THE COOLER AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE SURFACE BASED. POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS FOR RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS THAT WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET STREAK THAT WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG
AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM ERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS ERN OK AS IT SURGES SEWD AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

..DIAL.. 11/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.