[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141631
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
SZL VIH MVN 25 S BMG LUK 40 WSW UNI JKL HSV 25 SE TUP GWO SHV 45 NNW
TYR 10 E DUA BVO 15 WSW CNU 30 SSW SZL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BUF 30 SE LBE
35 SW AHN 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS ...CONT... 55 E CRP 35 NW LRD
...CONT... 35 W DRT 25 SSW SJT 15 ENE ABI 35 ENE SPS 10 NNW OKC 15 W
END 25 NNW GAG 35 E RTN 25 E GUC 40 NNE GJT 20 SSE BPI 35 E JAC 35
NNE WRL 20 NW DGW 10 S BFF 10 SSW HLC 40 ESE SLN 20 NNE SZL 35 WSW
SPI 20 NNE DNV 20 SW FWA 10 S MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE SAV 40 S OGB
20 WSW FLO 20 ENE FAY 10 N OAJ 60 E ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS AND
OH VALLEYS...

POWERFUL 110KT MID LEVEL JET MAX IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES TODAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.  DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST
CO INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SURFACE WARM
FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS.  THIS REGION WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

...MID MS VALLEY...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LYING FROM SOUTHEAST
OK...ACROSS SOUTHERN AR...INTO NORTHWEST MS.  THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST BY MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL BE BY 12Z.  STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER DARK.  LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN 00Z-12Z /EFFECTIVE
HELICITY VALUES OF 300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT BY
12Z/.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH ELEVATED CORES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL FROM WARM FRONT NORTHWARD.  SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...LEADING INTO A
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON TUESDAY.

SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK DUE TO PROXIMITY OF
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS LATER TONIGHT.
 HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT /RUC-NMM FARTHER SOUTH...NAM-GFS FARTHER NORTH/. 
POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADE WILL BE RE-EVALUATED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...OH/TN VALLEYS...
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
STARTING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN TN AND SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF KY/IND/OH.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA.

..HART.. 11/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.