[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141300
SWODY1
SPC AC 141258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
SZL 15 NW VIH 10 NE MVN 30 SE BMG 45 SE DAY 25 N HTS 10 SE JKL 40 W
CHA 30 NNW BHM 20 WSW GWO 20 NW SHV 40 NNW TYR 30 SSW MLC 40 W MKO
20 NNW BVO 25 NNW CNU 30 SSW SZL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W DRT 25 SSW SJT
30 SW ABI 35 NNE ABI 25 ESE SPS 15 WNW ADM 30 NE CQB 35 ENE ICT 15 E
TOP 30 NNE SZL 35 NW ALN LAF 35 ENE FDY 30 SW ERI 20 SE ERI 30 NNW
DUJ 30 SSW AOO 20 SE CRW 10 SE TRI 20 N AHN 15 E TOI 10 WSW PNS 75
SW PNS ...CONT... 65 SE CRP 65 W MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ASE 45 NE GJT
35 NE VEL 50 NNE EVW 30 SSW JAC 15 E WEY 35 NNW COD 40 WSW SHR 10 S
TOR 45 ENE FCL 10 SSE DEN 15 WNW ASE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE SAV 40 S OGB
20 WSW FLO 20 ENE FAY 10 N OAJ 60 E ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR ERN OK/NERN TX INTO
THE MS AND OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING FROM SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO ERN OK/WRN AR BY TUE MORNING. FARTHER E...LEAD UPPER VORT MAX
WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF CO/KS...BECOMING FAVORABLY PHASED WITH
SECONDARY UPPER JET ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AID IN LARGE SCALE
LIFT. AT THE SURFACE...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NWD FROM AR/NRN MS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH RELATIVELY RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND A PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING
THE DAY TODAY...WITH INCREASING THREAT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
INTO ERN OK/AR/SRN MO WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.

...LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO OH VALLEY...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM ERN TX
INTO MS WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. ONGOING CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY. SEVERE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND
THIS MORNING...BUT STORMS ALONG AND/OR SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STRONG FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG WARM FRONT
SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO SMALL
SCALE BOWS POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

...ERN OK/AR/SRN MO TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...TRANSPORTING RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS ERN TX INTO WRN AR/ERN OK. MEANWHILE...AS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH ELEVATED HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SRN MO.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS WILL BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE...SURFACE PARCELS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE. GIVEN
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AND DEEPENING LOW...ENOUGH MIXING MAY
OCCUR IN A NARROW AXIS AHEAD OF LOW TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE A
TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 11/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.