[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140551
SWODY1
SPC AC 140549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
JEF 15 W MVN 30 NW LUK 45 SE DAY 20 NNW HTS 15 ESE JKL 40 WNW CHA 15
N CBM 45 WNW JAN 25 NNW IER 15 SSW GGG 30 WSW PRX 30 NNE ADM 30 WSW
BVO 30 NNE CNU 25 WSW SZL 20 ESE JEF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE CRP 65 W MFE
...CONT... 35 W DRT 25 SSW SJT 30 SW ABI 40 NW MWL 40 W ADM 25 NNE
OKC 10 NW PNC 35 NE ICT 10 NNE TOP 35 NNE SZL 35 NW ALN LAF 35 ENE
FDY 30 SW ERI 20 SE ERI 30 NNW DUJ 30 SSW AOO 40 NNE BKW 50 N TRI 25
NNE ATL 20 E MGM 10 WSW PNS 75 SW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE SAV 40 S OGB 20
W FLO 30 NNE FAY 10 N OAJ 65 ESE ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/SERN KS/NERN TX
INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF DIGGING...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  PRECEEDING
THIS LARGER-SCALE EVOLUTION...LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM
FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX OR ERN OK INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY
15/12Z.  MEANWHILE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER ERN CO WITH
APPROACH OF UPPER JET STREAKS AND PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO SWRN MO BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH TRAILING...STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGING SWD
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY...

RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED
WITH APPROACH OF CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SWLY LLJ TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG RETREATING
WARM FRONT.  THIS REGIME WILL SUPPORT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E.
MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AND MIGRATORY
SURFACE LOW.

EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TODAY WITHIN
THIS WAA PATTERN FROM THE LA COAST NWD TO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN
AR/NRN MS AND INTO WRN/CNTRL TN/KY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. 
SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...A POTENTIALLY ENHANCED
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN LOCAL ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2/ AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...EWD ALONG
WARM FRONT. 

...ERN OK/SERN KS/SRN MO/WRN AND CNTRL AR...

LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KT
LLJ ACROSS REGION TONIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.  TSTMS...INITIALLY ELEVATED...WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED
MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS AR/ERN OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO SERN KS
AND SRN MO.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH TIME
ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS.  SHOULD
STORMS BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER...STRONGLY SHEARED
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.  OTHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SERN KS/NERN OK BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.