[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140044
SWODY1
SPC AC 140042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE 6R6 15 ESE BWD
15 ESE DEQ 45 SSE BVX 25 SSW CKV 35 S BNA 25 SSE HSV 45 NNW MOB 80 S
HUM ...CONT... 60 SSW PSX 15 SSW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT FROM WRN TN SWWD THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX AND INTO SWRN TX NEAR DRT.  DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /AOB MOIST ADIABATIC/ OBSERVED ON 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS...BOUNDARY-LAYER MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 11-13 G/KG COUPLED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL TX. 

TSTMS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO
ALONG THE FRONT N OF SHV...AS WELL AS IN WARM SECTOR S OF LFK. THUS
FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE REMAINED RATHER DISORGANIZED...PERHAPS AS A
RESULT OF THE POOR LAPSE RATES...MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE /REF. INVERSION AROUND 630 MB ON 00Z SHV
SOUNDING/.  SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF IMPULSE CURRENTLY
OVER NRN MEXICO.  A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO STORMS
WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND SLOWLY STABILIZES.

..MEAD.. 11/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.