[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131945
SWODY1
SPC AC 131943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW PSX 15 SSW LRD
...CONT... 35 SE 6R6 40 NE SJT 20 W GYI 25 NNW MLC 15 ESE FYV 30 WNW
ARG 20 WSW SDF 30 E DAY 30 NE CMH 25 N PKB 45 S HTS 30 W RMG 45 NNW
MOB 60 SSW BVE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD ONTARIO/
QUEBEC...LEAVING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  SRN PORTION OF TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD INTO MS/SRN AR AND ACROSS ERN/SRN TX
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM MORNING CONVECTION
OVER AR/NRN MS...NOW EXTENDED FROM SRN AL WNWWD TO SRN AR.  

...TX/AR/LA/MS...
EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CU/TCU AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NRN
LA/ERN TX.  DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM TX TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/.  THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG
UPPER FORCING...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES. 
HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET...WITH ANY ACTIVITY WEAKENING QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

..PETERS.. 11/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.