[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131623
SWODY1
SPC AC 131621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 6R6 40 NE SJT
20 W GYI 25 NNW MLC 15 ESE FYV 30 WNW ARG 25 NNE EVV 35 S FDY MFD 25
N PKB 45 S HTS 30 W RMG 45 NNW MOB 45 S 7R4 ...CONT... 60 SSW PSX 15
SSW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...LEAVING BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES. 
MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT.

...TX/AR/LA/MS...
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM WESTERN AR INTO CENTRAL TX.  AIR
MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW/MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
MIDWESTERN TROUGH DEPARTS AREA.  HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST SOME
THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST AR/WESTERN
MS...GENERALLY FROM 18-00Z.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.  LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...WEAK LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS...AND RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY TODAY.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.