[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110532
SWODY1
SPC AC 110531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST THU NOV 10 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BLH 60 WNW EED
10 S DRA 70 NW P38 60 NNE ENV 15 NW PIH 30 NW WEY 40 WNW COD 60 WNW
RIW 10 SE BPI 50 NNW VEL 50 WNW CAG 40 S RWL 20 NNE CYS 50 SE AIA 35
NNE LBF 20 NW GRI 35 ESE HSI 40 WNW CNK 10 S HLC 40 ESE LAA DHT 35 E
4CR 40 S SAD 25 NE GBN 65 ENE BLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 NNW SEA
35 WNW HQM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE OVER SRN CA IS FCST TO DEVELOP
INTO AN OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA LATER TODAY AND THEN EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY
EARLY SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...AND SOUTH THIS PERIOD WHILE
DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW MAINTAINS A COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THESE AREAS.

...FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES...
LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TSTMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LOCALLY INCREASE IN AREAS
OF FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND DIURNAL FORCING BY AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM
AND NAMKF POINT FCST SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING MUCAPE OF 300-400
J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NRN AZ/NM BORDER BY AROUND 18Z AND
THIS INSTABILITY COULD FUEL ISOLATED STRONGER UPDRAFTS. STORMS
FORMING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AOB 0.75 INCH IN
DIAMETER BASED ON SPC HAIL MODEL OUTPUT. AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF THE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...OLYMPIC PENINSULA...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG A VARIETY OF GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA THAT WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE
ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND PUGET SOUND AREAS.

..CARBIN.. 11/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.