[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101935
SWODY1
SPC AC 101934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST THU NOV 10 2005

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSW MRY BFL 25 E
SCK 65 ESE RBL 10 S AAT REO 45 N SUN IDA 40 ENE MLD U24 PGA INW 70
ESE PHX 55 SSW TUS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN CUT-OFF FROM
STRONGER/MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTH BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...
APPEARS TO FINALLY BE UNDERWAY.  THIS IS OCCURRING AS BROADLY
CYCLONIC NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...SRN CALIFORNIA INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
PRIMARY IMPULSE IS STILL ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WELL OFFSHORE... AND NOT
PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS
THIS REGION...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY
WHERE OROGRAPHY ENHANCES FORCING NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. 
ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR LAS VEGAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 11/03-06Z...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 11/12Z.

...SOUTHERN TEXAS...
GIVEN CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIMITED TO UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

..KERR.. 11/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.