[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 082007
SWODY1
SPC AC 082006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
CRW HTS 35 ENE LEX 45 E BMG SPI 25 WSW OXV FRM 10 WSW EAU CWA MBS 10
WNW YNG PIT 40 E CRW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW VBG 40 ENE
MRY 60 NE MER TPH 60 ESE TPH 30 NNE LAS 65 WNW EED 35 NE RAL 55 S
LGB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 E BFD 30
WNW BWI 25 S RIC 20 SW AVC 20 NE HSS 35 ENE CSV 25 WNW MDH 35 ESE
STJ 30 W SUX 25 ESE BKX 40 WSW DLH 30 NNE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT
30 E AUS 40 SSE CRS 35 N LFK 45 E GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE UPR MS VLY
THROUGH PARTS OF THE OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS....

...UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...NOW SHIFTING
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SUPPORTING ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS ON LEADING EDGE OF GULF RETURN
FLOW...WHERE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG.  DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND
GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BEFORE
MID-LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT.  UNTIL WEAKENING TRENDS
COMMENCE...A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
LARGE HAIL SEEMS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED SHORT LIVED
SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES...
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS
VIGOROUS UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE ACCELERATES FROM THE LEE
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WHILE
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ANOTHER WAVE IS DEVELOPING ALONG
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

LATTER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH
IS ACCELERATING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...JUST AHEAD AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING WHETHER LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL OVERCOME INHIBITION FOR
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...BUT LIMITED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE.

OTHERWISE...INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN STRONG
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF SURFACE WAVE... WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 11/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.