[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 090127
SWODY1
SPC AC 090125

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
CRW HTS 40 NE LEX 35 ESE IND 20 SSW BMI 20 ESE OTM 25 ESE MCW 10 WSW
EAU 35 NNW GRB 20 NNW HTL 10 WNW YNG HLG 20 NE CRW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 20 WNW PHL
10 WSW BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRY 45 ESE MRY
25 S FAT 30 W PMD 55 SW LGB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ORF 20 SW AVC
10 W TRI 30 ESE SDF 50 NNW EVV 10 E CDJ 45 E DNS RWF 55 ESE BRD 30 N
IWD 35 NNW MQT 20 NW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGION...

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...
WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WV...WHILE NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER N CENTRAL INDIANA JUST N OF WARM
FRONT...AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS NRN
IL/NRN INDIANA/OH NOW INTO WI/MI.  

THOUGH CAPPING IS STRONGER FURTHER W...SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
CROSSING THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AS IS
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT...AS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N
OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SLOWLY
RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE A FEW SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM.

...COASTAL SRN CA...
AREA OF SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES --
WILL EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE UPPER LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EWD.  DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.  

COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-20C/ -- AND THUS GREATEST INSTABILITY -- IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS POINT CONCEPTION AND VICINITY. 
GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS THIS
REGION...A FEW WATERSPOUTS/A BRIEF ONSHORE TORNADO BENEATH A
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 11/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.