[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081625
SWODY1
SPC AC 081623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N
CLE 50 ENE LUK 15 NW BMG 35 E UIN 20 ENE CID 35 WNW LNR 30 ENE VOK
15 WNW MTW 25 E RQB 20 NNW MTC 15 N CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW VBG 30 NNE
PRB 25 ESE FAT 25 E BIH 60 ESE TPH 30 NNE LAS 65 WNW EED 35 NE RAL
55 S LGB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 E BFD 30
WNW BWI 25 S RIC 20 SW AVC 20 NE HSS CSV 30 ESE FAM 35 WNW COU 35
NNE DSM 35 E MKT 35 SSE ASX 30 NNE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT
30 E AUS 40 SSE CRS 35 N LFK 45 E GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

...MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER
VALLEY...
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MID WEST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.  IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY...H85 WINDS OF 20-30
KT WILL SUSTAIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM ERN IND/OH INTO WRN PA/WV.  H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH WITH 50+ KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO
SRN LAKE MI REGION BY 06Z.  ALOFT...CURRENT MODEST WNWLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD AS
130+ KT H25 SPEED MAX /80+ KT AT H5/ SHIFTS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN EWD ACROSS NRN
MN...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND SEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  TRIPLE
POINT BETWEEN DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI AND INTO LOWER MI AFTER 06Z.  IN
ADDITION...UNSEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVELS EXTEND FROM THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY INTO CENTRAL MO.  

MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND ILN INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP / 6.7 C/KM FROM H85-H5/ ATOP A MOIST BUT COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL WAA MAY SUSTAIN A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THIS REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL.  LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IND.  THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE WEAK...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CINH WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED
DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE AFTER DARK AND BE ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.  THOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN COOL/STABLE...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ASCENT BECOME ENHANCED.  THERE REMAINS CONCERN THAT DEGREE OF
MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL MIXING/LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT/TRIPLE POINT MAY OVERCOME SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 0-1 KM AND LOW LCLS WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SRN WI/NRN IL/NRN IND AND PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD SURFACE PARCELS BE TAPPED.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.