[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081259
SWODY1
SPC AC 081258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
ZZV 20 ENE CRW 45 SSE HTS 30 WNW JKL 25 E MVN 25 NNW STL 40 SW BRL
25 WSW LSE 30 W CWA 50 ENE AUW 20 ESE MBL 10 NE FNT 25 S MTC 15 WNW
ZZV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER
50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE
TRM 35 SSW SAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 40 N SAT
20 SE TPL 35 NW LFK 40 E LFK 45 ESE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV
30 NW DCA 45 E RIC 25 NE RWI 25 W TRI BWG 20 WSW CGI 15 N TBN 20 NE
MKT 40 SE BRD 35 N ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT
LKS/MIDWEST/OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY UNUSUAL...POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST THIS PERIOD AS SPEED MAX NOW
CROSSING THE NRN RCKYS TEMPORARILY PHASES WITH SRN STREAM JET NOW
OVER THE GRT BASIN TO CARVE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER WRN ONTARIO
AND THE UPR GRT LKS.

LEE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER ERN MT SHOULD TRACK E ACROSS THE DAKS TODAY
BEFORE UNDERGOING RAPID DEEPENING OVER NRN MN/SW ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPR SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT.  FARTHER S...A
WEAK TRIPLE POINT WAVE MAY FORM LATER TODAY ALONG STALLED SURFACE
FRONT IN NRN IA.  THE WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE NE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SURGES NWD AS A WARM FRONT 
INTO SRN WI AND WRN/SRN LWR MI.

...GRT LKS/MIDWEST/OH VLY...
TSTMS NOW OVER THE MID OH VLY...ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION MAX...SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  ELEVATED
DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF WV/WRN
VA.  MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY MAY FORM UPSTREAM ACROSS SW
OH/IND/KY AND IL LATER TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN DESTABILIZE REGION ALONG AND JUST S
OF STALLING W-E COOL FRONT.

WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK
THROUGH THE DAY...GIVEN QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN
/WARM SECTOR PWS AOA 1 INCH/ AND 40-45 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP
COULD YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO IF SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM W TO
E ACROSS ERN IA/IL/WI/IND AND LWR MI THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS...AND MAIN NRN STREAM JET
STREAK APPROACHES REGION.  THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH ALONG AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IN
IA/WI/IL...AND POSSIBLY ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
MN SURFACE LOW.  ASSOCIATED RAPID NEWD SURFACE DESTABILIZATION FROM
MLI/DBQ AREA TO CHI/MKE/SW LWR MI MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.