[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080052
SWODY1
SPC AC 080051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST MON NOV 07 2005

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFD 15 S ZZV 25
N CRW 40 W BKW 40 WNW TRI 20 E CKV 20 ESE POF 15 SSE SGF 50 S SZL 25
ESE CDJ 25 NNW IRK 35 NW BRL 40 SW RFD 15 NE CGX 35 SW TOL 35 W MFD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEY REGION...
EVENING ILX /CENTRAL IL/ RAOB CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS THAT 500 TO
750 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING AS MODEST MOISTENING
IN THE 850 TO 900 MB LAYER /ASSISTED BY INTENSIFYING WSWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET/ CONTINUES.  IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...MODESTLY-STRONG BUT GENERALLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD YIELD ONLY
MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- THUS SUGGESTING GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE
STORMS.  THOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS...OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE HAIL
PROBABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 11/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.