[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST MON NOV 07 2005

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFD 15 S ZZV 25
N CRW 40 W BKW 40 WNW TRI 20 E CKV 20 ESE POF 15 SSE SGF 50 S SZL 25
ESE CDJ 25 NNW IRK 35 NW BRL 40 SW RFD 15 NE CGX 35 SW TOL 35 W MFD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 50 ESE OLM
45 ESE SLE 35 SE OTH 50 WSW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LRD 40 E AUS 25
SE UTS 40 S BPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...IL/IN...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO SWRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENCE BY LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS.  AS LLJ VEERS
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
INTO A MORE FOCUSED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS IL/IN LATE
TONIGHT.  IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...IT APPEARS ASCENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY LLJ ATOP SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS SCENARIO SUPPORT UNINHIBITED BUOYANCY FOR PARCELS LIFTED
BETWEEN 900-850MB.  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER DARK...MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000J/KG.  DEEP WLY COMPONENT AND
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...THUS THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL FROM
LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SEVERE RISK.

..DARROW.. 11/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.