[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080612
SWODY1
SPC AC 080611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW
CLE 20 SSW HLG 20 ENE CRW 30 SSE HTS 15 N SDF 25 E MVN 25 NNW STL 40
SW BRL 25 WSW LSE 30 W CWA 50 ENE AUW 20 ESE MBL 10 NE FNT 25 S MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER
50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE
TRM 35 SSW SAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV
30 NW DCA 45 E RIC 25 NE RWI 25 W TRI BWG 20 WSW CGI 15 N TBN 40 S
MSP IWD 90 NE MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 40 N SAT
20 SE TPL 35 NW LFK 40 E LFK 45 ESE GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SRN CA COAST.  

SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES
EWD.  ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE COLD
FRONT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR NOSE OF WSWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEAR AND N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.

THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH
THE DAY...APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  WITH MOST CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE
ELEVATED N OF WARM FRONT...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL. 
HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST -- WITH
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN LESS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
NEAR WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT MAY SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
WIND/HAIL...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS N OF CENTRAL
IL -- WITH CAPPING FORECAST TO HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
SW ALONG FRONT.

THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE
SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH 09/12Z.

..GOSS.. 11/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.