[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071612
SWODY1
SPC AC 071611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFD 15 S ZZV 25
N CRW 40 W BKW 40 WNW TRI 20 E CKV 20 ESE POF 15 SSE SGF 50 S SZL 25
ESE CDJ 25 NNW IRK 35 NW BRL 40 SW RFD 15 NE CGX 35 SW TOL 35 W MFD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 50 ESE OLM
45 ESE SLE 35 SE OTH 50 WSW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LRD 45 NNW ALI
10 ENE VCT 45 S GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL ACROSS MOST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST
WHERE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD
THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST OVERNIGHT.  POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN WA
ATTM MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL
RANGE IN WRN WA/NWRN ORE TODAY.  ELSEWHERE...AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NOW
ADVECTING NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE BECOME PLENTIFUL INTO CENTRAL/SERN TX THIS MORNING...WITH H85
DEW POINTS AOA 10C EVIDENT AT OUN/LZK/SHV.  THIS ROBUST MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN TX
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL FUEL INCREASING ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER DARK INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO IND/OH/KY...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUSTAIN SWLY LLJ ANCHORED
OVER PORTIONS OF OK/MO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN
AFTER DARK WITH H85 JET MAX NEAR 50 KT.  STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
ALONG NOSE OF THIS JET WILL INCREASE ASCENT AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
MOIST CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
PRIOR TO 00Z...THOUGH EVEN THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED
AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM NEAR 16C ATOP A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. 
STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD OVER MUCH OF
IL/IND/SWRN OH/NRN KY OVERNIGHT.  LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG.  IN
ADDITION... CLOUD-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION /INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS/...
SUGGESTING AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE HAIL REMAIN
WARRANTED.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.