[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070541
SWODY1
SPC AC 070540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW TOL 15 S CLE
10 WNW MGW 30 SW BLF 35 SE BWG 20 SE CGI 40 NE VIH 30 SE IRK BRL 25
W MMO 20 WNW TOL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 45 E AST
45 SW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LRD 40 NNW ALI
30 SSW VCT 45 SSE LBX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD AREA OF GENERALLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS NERN U.S.
TROUGH DEPARTS.  FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD AS POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NWRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC.  

AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS...WITH BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION AS 50 KT
WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVES AFTER SUNSET.

...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IN AND
VICINITY DURING THE EVENING AS RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS NOW
OVER TX ADVECTS NEWD OVER COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE
OF COLD FRONT. WITH SREF DATA SUGGESTING ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...A FEW RELATIVELY VIGOROUS STORMS MAY DEVELOP. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGEST THAT A
FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED/STRONGER
STORMS.

..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 11/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.