[SWODY1] SWODY1

Severe Weather Outlook Day 1 SWODY1 at goshenarc.org
Mon Nov 7 00:41:33 UTC 2005


ACUS01 KWNS 070039
SWODY1
SPC AC 070037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
ACY 30 NW DCA 30 SSW MSV 30 NW GFL 10 SSE RUT 15 ENE ORH 50 ENE HYA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 40 NNW AVC
15 ENE PSK 15 ESE IPT 15 N ITH 20 W MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SERN NY/SERN PA/NJ...
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS -- JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT --
CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY/ERN PA ATTM.  CONVECTION
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WILL
ENCOUNTER A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE -- PARTICULARLY FROM
SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH NEWD.  THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MOVES INTO THIS REGION.

FURTHER S -- FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
STORMS MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..GOSS.. 11/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.








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