[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061946
SWODY1
SPC AC 061944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNE
BML 10 SW AUG BOS 50 S BID ...CONT... 50 SE ACY 35 W NHK 20 W ROA 50
SSE HTS 25 WNW CRW HLG 30 W BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E SBY 10 N AVC 35
SW GSO 10 S GSP 35 NW AHN 15 E RMG 25 NNE CHA 35 W HTS 25 SW CAK 30
NW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA
45 S OLM 50 SW ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
NY/PA/WV EWD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD WITH AN ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT
JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ACROSS IND/OH AND KY.  THIS
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...WHILE ATTENDANT
SPEED MAX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW HAS OCCLUDED OVER NRN LAKE HURON
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

...NY/PA/WV EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY SWD TO NRN WV.  ONLY MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE HAS TENDED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE /I.E. MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG/...HOWEVER
INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUSTAIN
ONGOING STORMS EWD ACROSS PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG WITH REGIONAL VWPS INDICATING
50 KT+ SWLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND INVOF ONGOING TSTMS. 
THEREFORE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIKELY WITH ANY BOWING
OR LEWP STRUCTURES FORMING WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE.  SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR
MASS /0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60
KTS/.

DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS.

..MEAD.. 11/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.