[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061609
SWODY1
SPC AC 061607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
ACY 35 W NHK 20 W ROA 40 S HTS 45 WNW HTS 25 SSW CMH 65 E MTC
...CONT... 75 NNE BML 10 SW AUG BOS 50 S BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E SBY 10 N AVC 35
SW GSO 10 S GSP 35 NW AHN 15 E RMG 30 NNE CHA 35 ENE LEX 20 NW MFD
30 SSE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA
45 S OLM 50 SW ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH RIVER
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY 80-100 KT
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND INTO THE NERN STATES TODAY...WHILE SURFACE LOW CENTER SHIFTS
NEWD OUT OF MI AND INTO CANADA. A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW CENTER...AND WILL SWEEP EWD OUT
OF THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES.

...OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
CLASSIC LARGE SCALE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS EVOLVED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS OH AS OF 16Z WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING. MAIN DETRIMENT TO SEVERE MAGNITUDE
TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVELS OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES
WILL REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG.

12Z ILN AND PIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY 600-900 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY FARTHER NE INTO BUF OR ALB.
HOWEVER...AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES EWD...40-50 KT SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN AND ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE HEATING AS WELL WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG
PRESSURE RISES IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT. DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AND WIND
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY A SQUALL LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. 

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NRN PARTS OF THE THREAT AREA FROM CENTRAL PA INTO NY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LOW...AND ALTHOUGH
MOSTLY LINEAR IN MODE...STORMS MAY BECOME CELLULAR AT TIMES OR THERE
MAY BE EMBEDDED STRONG MESOCYCLONES WITHIN A LINE.

..JEWELL/EVANS.. 11/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.