[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061259
SWODY1
SPC AC 061257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
ACY 25 S DCA 25 S SSU 15 SSW JKL 35 ESE LEX 30 WNW CMH 40 SSE MTC
...CONT... 75 NNE BML 10 SW AUG BOS 50 S BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E SBY 20 W RIC 40
NNW CAE 35 WNW AUO 10 SE MEI 35 SSE GWO 25 SW UOX 20 WNW BWG 50 ESE
IND 15 SSE JXN 15 ESE HTL 15 NW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA
45 S OLM 50 SW ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY/MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND WRN NEW ENG...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IL WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE...
REACHING LK ERIE THIS EVENING...AND ERN ME/SE QUEBEC BY 12Z MONDAY. 
LEAD MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS OVER IND/OH
ATTM.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT NE TOWARD LK ONTARIO LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM 80+ KT SPEED MAX OVER NRN MO /PER SATELLITE...VWP AND
PROFILER DATA/ SWEEPS E TO THE UPR OH VLY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE IL TROUGH...AND LIKELY ASSUMPTION OF
A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW NOW NEARING SAGINAW BAY SHOULD CONTINUE
E AND LATER NE INTO ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC...WITH ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING.  COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM LOW IS OVER FAR WRN OH ATTM. 
THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...PRECEDED BY WEAKENING CONFLUENCE
BANDS/OUTFLOW SEGMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS.

...UPR OH VLY/NRN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC/WRN NEW ENG...
BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL/ERN OH SWWD INTO
KY/TN ATTM SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIANS LATER THIS MORNING.  WHILE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CELLS MAY PERSIST GIVEN 50+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...ACTIVITY
HAS MOVED BEYOND AXIS OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND THE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN.

A BIT FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM/STRENGTHEN ALONG COLD
FRONT NOW IN WRN OH.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO REGION OF STRONGEST MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGEST 
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.  THE STORMS WILL ALSO GET A BOOST
FROM MODEST SURFACE HEATING.  AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES E/NE TO THE
LWR GRT LKS/WRN PA/WRN NY.

AS THE FRONTAL STORMS APPROACH CNTRL PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY... CNTRL
PA AND THE MD PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...ACTIVITY WILL COME UNDER
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED MO JET MAX.  THIS MAY RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION OF
THE CONVECTIVE BAND...AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWS
WITH HIGH WIND...AS DEEP SSWLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO AOA 60 KTS. 
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED EWD INTO THE HUDSON VLY...THE MID
ATLANTIC CST AND WRN NEW ENG.  BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT...DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND.  THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD
INTO WRN/NRN NEW ENG TONIGHT.

..CORFIDI/DIAL/TAYLOR.. 11/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.