[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060608
SWODY1
SPC AC 060605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
ACY 25 S DCA 25 S SSU 15 SSW JKL 35 ESE LEX 30 WNW CMH 45 SE DTW
...CONT... 25 WNW EFK 25 SSW EWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 25 SE RDU
40 S SPA 35 NNE SEM MEI 40 SSE GWO 30 SW UOX 25 NNW HOP 15 N BMG 30
SSE SBN 15 SE MBL 55 W ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA
45 S OLM 50 SW ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW --
INITIALLY FORECAST OVER LOWER MI IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS LK
HURON/SRN ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
 ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
07/12Z.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING.

...THE NORTHEAST...
STORMS AND AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM OH SWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY...ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  THOUGH DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.
 THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LINE OF
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS PA/NY/WV/MD/NRN VA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE.

DESPITE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
WILL ACCOMPANY THE INTENSE UPPER SYSTEM.  STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING
AND STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG LINE -- WITH SMALL-SCALE LEWPS AND
BOWS LIKELY.  GREATEST THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AND EXTEND FROM ERN OH AND WV EWD INTO ERN NY/ERN PA. 
LESSER THREAT MAY EXTEND SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE LESS
WIDESPREAD/INTENSE -- AND THUS SEVERE THREAT MORE ISOLATED -- ACROSS
THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 11/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.