[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060100
SWODY1
SPC AC 060059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX 20 WSW BWG MKL 45 ENE LIT 10 W RKR 35 ENE
MKO 45 N COU 20 W MLI 25 W MKG 45 E BAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W BUF 15 S BFD 30
E MGW 20 SE HTS 15 NW TYS 20 SSW HSV 30 SW GWO 35 NNW TYR 10 E GYI
25 ENE TUL 15 WSW STJ 15 NW ALO 20 S LSE 45 NW TVC 50 ENE APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MS AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS/SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MO/THE OZARKS REGION ALONG COLD FRONT/JUST
AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WARM
SECTOR DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND SEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER AWAY FROM FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS CAPPED
PER EVENING LZK /LITTLE ROCK AR/ AND ILX /CENTRAL ILLINOIS/ RAOBS. 
EXPECT BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY LINEAR WITH
TIME...WHILE REMAINING CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
FRONTAL FORCING/UVV WILL BE REQUIRED TO WEAKEN CAP. 
ELSEWHERE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION N OF WARM FRONT--NOW INDICATED OVER NRN IL/NRN INDIANA.

THOUGH MARGINAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER/ELEVATED
STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS MO/NRN AR...AND WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME ACROSS
IL/IN AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN TN/WRN KY. 
BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW REMAINS SLY/SSELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH
50 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...YIELDING SHEAR PROFILES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD -- AS MENTIONED
ABOVE -- BECOME MORE SOLIDLY LINEAR WITH TIME...EXPECT EMBEDDED
ROTATION WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE -- ALONG WITH BOWS/LEWP-TYPE
STRUCTURES WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME.  ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THESE ROTATING FEATURES...EXPECT DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL TO ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTIVE LINE.  THOUGH DAMAGING
WIND THREAT MAY SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SOME
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR...THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN STRONG DYNAMIC COMPONENT
WITH THIS EVENT AND INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING WIND FIELD.

..GOSS.. 11/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.