[SWODY1] SWODY1

Sat Nov 5 16:28:01 UTC 2005

ACUS01 KWNS 051618
SWODY1
SPC AC 051616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX BWG 10 E MEM BVX 25 NNE FLP 35 WSW COU 35
SSE OTM 30 NE DBQ 40 NW MKG 15 NNW MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA
15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW PUB 35 E GUC 25
NNW GUC 30 WSW EGE 35 ESE CAG 30 S LAR 20 S CYS 35 SSE IML 40 E GLD
45 NNW GCK 25 ENE LAA 20 NW PUB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35
ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25
NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW
TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC
50 N APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...

...MID WEST...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.  PRIMARY MID LEVEL JET WITH H5 WINDS FROM
75-85 KT WILL REMAIN ALONG BACK-SIDE OF THIS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.  HOWEVER...MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL DEVELOP/SHIFT TO THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IND TONIGHT AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER
SERN KS WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS
MO...WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW DEVELOPS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY ESEWD AS LOW CENTER SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATER
TODAY/OVERNIGHT.  OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STRONGEST SHEAR OVERSPREADS THE
WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVED MOISTURE FIELDS
INDICATE STRONG CAP AND RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT RISK
FACTORS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH STRONG INVERSION LAYER AROUND H85 THIS MORNING AT LZK AND
SGF...EXPECT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LOW
CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER AS DEEP ASCENT
INCREASES...EXPECT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER INTO PORTIONS OF ERN IA/IL. 
ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR MODERATE MUCAPE WITHIN THIS REGION...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THUS...LARGE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL 22Z-00Z AS CAP WEAKENS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.  INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES SHOULD ACTIVITY REMAIN
SURFACE-BASED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER EVOLVE INTO OR BE OVERCOME
BY SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF STEEP ASCENT PLUME DURING THE EVENING.  BROKEN
SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/LEWP STRUCTURES WILL SUSTAIN AT
LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT RACES EWD INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  WIND DAMAGE COULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD GIVEN SIGNIFICANT WINDS /50+ KT/ JUST OFF THE SURFACE. 
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD SUSTAIN
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THIS LINE AS WELL.  TORNADO THREAT AFTER
DARK MAY BE MITIGATED BY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER DUE TO NOCTURNAL
COOLING.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVERNIGHT.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.