[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051255
SWODY1
SPC AC 051254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
ERI 30 NNW ZZV 55 SE LUK BWG 10 E MEM BVX HRO SGF 30 W UIN 40 SW RFD
10 SSW RQB 55 ENE BAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CLM 20 SW OLM
20 SW PDX 25 SW EUG 55 NW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GLD 35 SW GUC
50 SSW CAG 50 NE CAG 35 SE MHN 30 ESE BBW 40 S HSI 40 SSE GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 10 SSE ELM
UNV 25 SSW EKN 15 NE TRI 35 ESE CHA 30 SSE HSV 30 E GWO 25 ENE GGG
25 SE PRX 35 SW GMJ 25 WNW LWD 40 ENE MCW 30 NE VOK 55 NNW TVC 50 N
APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS
INTO LWR MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WNWLY
UPSTREAM JET CROSSING THE NRN GRT BASIN.  THE IMPULSE SHOULD...
HOWEVER...REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AND REACH THE LAKE MI AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A WEAKER LEAD DISTURBANCE...NOW ENTERING WRN NEB/NW KS PER
STLT...SHOULD PRECEDE MAIN IMPULSE AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE MID MS
VLY LATER TODAY.

AT LWR LEVELS...APPROACH OF RCKYS TROUGH LIKELY TO INDUCE STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE MID MS VLY BEGINNING THIS
EVENING.  THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY 
AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES E/NE ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY.

...MID MS/LWR OH VLY INTO LWR MI...
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE LWR TO MID MS VLY REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 60 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE KSTL AND KIND AREAS BY EARLY EVENING.  AT THE SAME TIME...
EXPECT THAT STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER PLUME OVER REGION.

COMBINATION OF FRONTAL UPLIFT AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
AFOREMENTIONED NEB/KS IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION/STORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF IA ENE
INTO NRN IL/SRN WI AND LWR MI. FARTHER S...EXPECT PRESENCE OF
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO KEEP WARM SECTOR CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...DESPITE SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING.

LATE TODAY OR...MORE LIKELY...EARLY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FORM OVER CNTRL/ERN MO AND WRN IL IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY /1/ STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND /2/
EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH RCKYS TROUGH. 
DEEP SWLY SHEAR ACROSS REGION WILL INCREASE TO AOA 50 KTS...AND 
MLCAPE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.  AS A RESULT...SETUP
SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.

WHILE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-LINEAR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...EXTRAPOLATION OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH FROM 
CURRENT SATELLITE/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT WILL REMAIN W OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AREA FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THUS...SETUP MAY SUPPORT
A FEW DISCRETE OR QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN PARTS OF MO/IL ...WRN KY
AND WRN IND GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.

LATER TONIGHT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME HIGH WIND AS STORMS
EVOLVE INTO A MORE OR LESS SOLID SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND
BOWS.  DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSET BY
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE
THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY E/NE INTO ERN IND...LWR MI
AND NW OH.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.