[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051957
SWODY1
SPC AC 051955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX 30 WSW BWG 45 WSW MEM 30 NE LIT 40 S FLP 25
WSW JEF 15 W CID 40 S LSE 20 SSW MTW 15 NNW MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA
15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 35 SW PUB
60 SW COS 50 S 4FC 25 WNW DEN 30 E FCL 35 NE AKO 35 SSE IML 30 WSW
HLC 25 ENE GCK 35 NNE EHA 35 SSE LHX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35
ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25
NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW
TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC
50 N APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MO/ OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS WITH ADDITIONAL...LOWER AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA.  THIS LEAD
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WHILE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WAS CONSOLIDATING E OF MKC AS OF
19Z WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL IL
INTO SRN LOWER MI.  LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW PRESSURE NEWD TO VICINITY OF
CHICAGO BY 06/06Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL LOWER MI SUNDAY
MORNING.  WITH THE NEWD PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE EWD
THROUGH THE MID MO AND LOWER OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MO AND OH VALLEYS...

ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN
WI.  IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
IMPULSE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/REF. 18Z DVN SOUNDING/ ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL N OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI...BEFORE WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS THIS EVENING AS
STRONG...DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION.  18Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND MORE SO SGF
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS DEVELOPING
WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY SERVE TO DELAY STORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF MODERATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. 
CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE
TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWP STRUCTURES.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.