[SWODY1] SWODY1

Sat Nov 5 05:54:09 UTC 2005

ACUS01 KWNS 050552
SWODY1
SPC AC 050550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
ERI CMH BWG MKL MEM BVX HRO SGF COU UIN MKG 45 ESE BAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 10 SSE ELM
UNV 25 SSW EKN 15 NE TRI 35 ESE CHA 30 SSE HSV 30 E GWO 35 NNE MLU
30 SW DEQ 35 SW GMJ 25 WNW LWD 40 ENE MCW 30 NE VOK GRB 45 NNW TVC
50 N APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN LOWER MI TO NERN AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMIDST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS.  MOST IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS
TROUGH INDICATED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR PACIFIC
NW ATTM.  EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...REACHING TO NEAR LOWER OH VALLEY
AND LOWER MI REGION BY END OF PERIOD.  PRONOUNCED AMPLIFICATION IS
FCST...WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN SREF AND DETERMINISTIC PROGS
SHAPE AND TILT OF THIS PERTURBATION BY 06/12Z.

AT SFC..FRONTAL WAVE CYCLOGENESIS NOW ANALYZED OVER N-CENTRAL/NWRN
OK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH BEGINNING OF PERIOD THEM SHIFT NEWD...AS
LOW MOVES FROM KS/OK BORDER REGION TO VICINITY NERN MO/NRN IL BY
06/00Z.  CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING EXPECTED DURING LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD INTO EARLY DAY-2...WITH PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC LOW PROBABLY
MOVING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI AROUND 06/12Z.  ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE
-- NOW DRAWN QUASISTATIONARY FROM SRN LM ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO NWRN
OK -- SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND SWEEP SEWD OVER OK...OZARKS REGION AND
WRN/NRN IL FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SFC CYCLONE.  MEANWHILE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA AND LOWER MI.

...GREAT LAKES TO LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
WITH MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS PATTERN COULD YIELD A
MAJOR SEVERE EVENT.  AS IT STANDS...SCATTERED TSTMS WITH DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL STILL SHOULD DEVELOP MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE
EVENING NEAR AND S OF SFC CYCLONE...DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT.
 WIDELY SCATTERED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

SHORT-LIVED BOW OR SUPERCELL MODES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COLD FRONT AND
SFC LOW WITHIN FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BEFORE
DEVELOPMENT OF SQUALL LINE IN SWD/DISCRETELY BACKBUILDING FASHION. 
CELL MOTION SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THAT OF FORCING
BOUNDARY...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
LOCALLY.  ANOTHER REGIME OF HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE
CELLS EMBEDDED IN PLUME OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND N OF
WARM FRONT.  PRIMARY MODE OF UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS SWD/EWD EXTENT OF
ACTIVITY AWAY FROM SFC LOW...AND AS SUCH...AWAY FROM MOST INTENSE
LOW LEVEL FORCING.

EXAMINATION OF UPSTREAM AIR MASSES AT VARIOUS LEVELS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/BUOYANT/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...BUT
ALSO...STRONG CAPPING THAT SHOULD RESTRICT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
DEVELOPMENT.  SFC...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES SAMPLE DISTINCT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME -- CONSISTING OF FORMERLY CONTINENTAL AIR THAT
HAS BEEN MODIFYING OVER GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS -- AXIS EXTENDING FROM
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SERN LA TO ERN MS/AL.  850-700 MB ANALYSES AND
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD FROM MEX PLATEAU AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
MS VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. 
ASSOCIATED CAPPING WILL RENDER TSTM AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES SMALLER
AND MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT INVOF COLD FRONT.

MID 50S TO LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON BY LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM OZARKS REGION NEWD ACROSS
IL/INDIANA...SHIFTING INTO LOWER MI WITH WARM FROPA.  THIS SHOULD
COMBINE WITH SEASONALLY STRONG SFC WAA AND DIABATIC HEATING TO YIELD
MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG OVER WARM SECTOR.  ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000
J/KG ARE POSSIBLE JUST N OF SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IN ZONE OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. 
ROUGHLY STRAIGHT LOW-MIDLEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD CHARACTERIZE MOST OF
WARM SECTOR...EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY SFC CYCLONE AND WARM
FRONT WHERE BACKED SFC FLOW WILL INDUCE MORE PRONOUNCED CURVATURE
AND HELP TO BOOST 0-1 KM SRH TO NEAR 150 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEARS
ALSO SHOULD INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...35-45 KT OVER MUCH OF WARM
SECTOR BUT 55-65 KT INVOF WARM FRONT.

EXPECT MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE TO DECLINE GRADUALLY IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AFTER ABOUT 06/03Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
COOLS...ELEVATING LAYER OF OPTIMALLY BUOYANT INFLOW.

..EDWARDS.. 11/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.