[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 030041
SWODY1
SPC AC 030039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SCK 25 SW SAC 15
ESE RBL 45 SE MHS 75 ENE RBL 45 NW TVL 50 SSW TVL 15 NNE MER 35 S
SCK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS MOST OF CONUS...N
OF RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER NWRN GULF.
 STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
INVOF PACIFIC COAST FROM NRN CA TO WA -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 03Z.  TROUGH SHOULD REACH NRN ROCKIES AND SRN
GREAT BASIN REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD.  

...NRN CA...
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF TROUGH DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS... MAINLY ACROSS SAC VALLEY AND NRN FOOTHILLS OF SIERRA NV
OF CA. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK SBCIN...MARGINAL BUT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL THETAE...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  EXPECT ASSOCIATED MLCAPES -- NOW INDICATED TO
BE AS MUCH AS 100-200 J/KG OVER PORTIONS SAC VALLEY -- TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME THERE AS TROUGH PASSES AND BOTH SFC AND MIDLEVELS
STABILIZE.  

...REMAINDER WRN CONUS...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER BETWEEN PACIFIC NW
AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH 12Z...AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
POCKETS OF VERY WEAK AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY DEVELOP.  LACK OF MORE
ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITS OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER
AND PRECLUDES GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK.  ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS.

..EDWARDS.. 11/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.