[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311616
SWODY1
SPC AC 311615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
HOB 50 SSE CVS 45 WNW LBB 40 E LBB 55 NNW ABI 45 ENE ABI 25 ESE BWD
55 SE BWD 60 E JCT 30 SE JCT 35 SW JCT 60 SW SJT 30 ESE HOB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLL 15
N VCT 35 E COT 30 SE DRT 25 E FST INK 60 E 4CR 30 SE LVS 25 SSE CAO
DHT 45 ENE AMA 15 ENE CDS SPS 45 NE DAL 30 NW TYR CLL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BML 25 WNW LCI
20 SSW CON 20 WSW BOS 15 SSE PVD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E NEL 30 SE CXY 20
WSW LBE 15 NNW HLG 60 E MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 20 SSW CON
20 E ORH 10 S EWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR 70 WNW MLS
25 SE MLS 40 N REJ 35 SSW BIS 20 N JMS 30 NW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WSW
IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 20 W HOP 45 SE BWG AVL 30 NE FAY 20 WSW
HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW P07 15 NW GDP
30 NNW 4CR 55 SSW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15
N OGD 55 SW MLD 25 NW ENV 40 SSW EKO 10 NNE LOL 25 NE RNO 15 E TVL
35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 35 SE MFR 75 N 4LW 50 SSW PDT 55 WNW
ALW 15 NW YKM 15 S AST.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF TEXAS AND EASTERN
PORTION OF NEW MEXICO...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGHS INTO NWRN
U.S. THEN WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER PLAINS WITH ENERGY BEING DIVERTED
AROUND CONTINUED BLOCKING RIDGE SERN CANADA.  MUCH OF MONDAYS TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES IS HEADING NEWD INTO NRN PLAINS WHILE SRN
PORTION OF THE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX
TRACKS FROM SRN ROCKIES INTO SWRN TX TONIGHT.  DOWNSTREAM AN
INITIALLY WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTRAL GULF COAST CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EWD WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM SRN HIGH
PLAINS EWD ALONG GULF COAST TO FL. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SERN LA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ENEWD TO SWRN AL AGAIN AS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT PER 12Z NAM RUN.

REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT SRN HIGH PLAINS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PERSISTED AS SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD OVER W
CENTRAL TX.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL WIND MAX HEADING SEWD INTO WRN TX BY THIS
EVENING WILL ENHANCE BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD
MOTION TO SUPPORT RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  CURRENT AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WCENTRAL TX HAS
BEEN VERY SLOW TO WEAKEN WHICH REFLECTS BOTH THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES.

WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINING GOOD MOISTURE FLUX ALONG ERN
NM/TX BORDER...AND STRONG HEATING...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX.  WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WITH BRN VALUES FROM
50-60 M2/SEC2...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP VICINITY TX ERN
NM/TX BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE LIKELY.
AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT...SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A SEVERE MCS. THIS WOULD THEN
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MCS MOVES SEWD THRU
CENTRAL TX.

...FL...
LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS FL
PENINSULA THIS AM...TEMPORARILY REDUCING INSTABILITY.  THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM SERN COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

A GREATER CONCERN IS THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM INDICATING
THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL GULF
COAST SWD INTO THE GULF.  A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT ...WITH SHEAR
PROFILES BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS BY 12Z WED.  WITH A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE AND A NEW AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER THE
N CENTRAL GULF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN THE
AFTERNOON DY1 OUTLOOK FOR AT LEAST THE WRN FL COAST FOR TONIGHT.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.