[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311244
SWODY1
SPC AC 311242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLL 20
NW VCT COT DRT 25 E FST INK 60 E 4CR 30 SE LVS 25 SSE CAO DHT 45 ENE
AMA 15 ENE CDS SPS 45 NE DAL 30 NW TYR CLL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 20 WSW AXN
FOD 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 20 W HOP 45 SE BWG AVL 30 NE
FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 20 SSW INK 15 SE ROW 30 SE SAF
55 SSW ALS 30 WNW ALS 30 SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15
N OGD 55 SW MLD 40 N ENV 40 SSW EKO 25 WSW BAM 60 NNW LOL 25 ENE SVE
30 NW RNO 65 WNW BIH 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 30 NE MHS 70 N 4LW
25 SSW PDT 50 SE EPH 15 NW YKM 15 E AST 25 NNE UIL ...CONT... 25 NNE
HVR 65 ESE HVR 65 WNW MLS 20 SE MLS 40 N REJ 40 NNE Y22 35 SSE P24
50 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E NEL 30 SE CXY 20
WSW LBE 15 NNW HLG 60 E MTC ...CONT... 35 NNW BML 25 WNW LCI 20 SSW
CON 20 WSW BOS 15 SSE PVD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF TX AND ERN
NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SRN MT THIS MORNING...WITH A SHARP
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS. WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRETCHED FROM THE MT LOW SWWD ACROSS UT...WITH A SPEED MAX AT THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH MOVING ESEWD THROUGH NRN AZ. WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER MS IS TRAPPED UNDER UPPER RIDGE...LOCATED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NWD INTO CANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN UPPER
LOW TO LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS...
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AROUND THE LBB AREA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/
DISSIPATE AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DECREASES AND STORMS MOVE INTO
A MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER MAF 12 SOUNDING. THE OUTFLOW
FROM THESE STORMS...SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT
BOUNDARY LOCATION AT MID/LATE AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT TRACK OF STORMS
SUGGEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE TO A TCC-LBB-ABI LINE. THE
850 MB PROGS ALSO SHOW A THERMAL GRADIENT CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THIS
FORECAST SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
HELP WEAKEN CAP THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH/SPEED MAX. THE COMBINATION OF VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 3KM
AND 45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BETWEEN 45-55 KT. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD
MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
HOWEVER...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STORMS MERGING
INTO AN MCS...AND THEN MOVING SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED
ACROSS SWRN TX. BOTH WIND AND HAIL THREATS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX.

OTHER NON-SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING EXTENDS EAST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS TROUGH FROM NEB SWD INTO WRN OK/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RESULTANT 
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION INHIBITING HEATING/STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM
WRN/CENTRAL OK NWD ACROSS KS AND NEB. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING MAY
RESULT IN AN INSTABILITY AXIS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS
SWD INTO ERN TX...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A UPPER LOW OVER MS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS
AREA.

...GULF COASTAL STATES...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SERN LA WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN AL AND
INTO THE NRN FL PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER
LOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. 

...SRN FL...
LINE OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING EWD INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED WEAK WINDS/SHEAR...BUT MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL 
THIS MORNING BEFORE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

..IMY/JEWELL.. 05/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.