[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 312019
SWODY1
SPC AC 312018

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
HOB 45 WNW LBB 25 NW PVW 35 ENE PVW 30 SSE CDS 55 WNW MWL 15 WNW SEP
40 ESE BWD 55 SSE BWD 25 ENE JCT 40 SSW SJT 55 SE MAF 40 E HOB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
CLL 20 NNW VCT 35 E COT 30 SE DRT 25 E FST 45 NW HOB 65 ENE 4CR 35
SSW RTN 30 ESE RTN 25 ESE DHT 50 N CDS 20 ESE LTS 45 SSW ADM 40 S
DUA 40 WSW TYR 20 SSE CLL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR 70 WNW MLS
25 SE MLS 40 N REJ 35 SSW BIS 20 N JMS 30 NW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WSW
IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 40 NE MKL 40 ESE BNA 15 ENE AVL 30 NE FAY
20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 15 NW GDP 30 NNW 4CR 55 SSW ALS 30
SE GUC 10 ENE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 25 NW ENV
40 SSW EKO 10 NNE LOL 25 NE RNO 15 E TVL 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S
RBL 35 SE MFR 75 N 4LW 50 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 15 NW YKM 15 S AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ACY 25 ESE HGR
15 S LBE 20 S YNG 60 E MTC ...CONT... 40 N BML 15 SSW MWN 10 SSW CON
20 WSW BOS 10 S EWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 20 SE CTY 40
SSW GNV 40 NE PIE 35 E SRQ FMY 20 S FMY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM THROUGH WRN AND S
CNTRL TX AND THE W CNTRL FL PENINSULA...

...NERN NM THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL TX...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN OK
SWWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE JUST S OF AMARILLO THEN WWD INTO NRN
NM. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR JUNCTION NWWD THROUGH W TX
WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR AMARILLO. THE WARM
SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN VICINITY
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF W TX. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING ESEWD MOVING VORT MAX OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MN WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME. FARTHER S IN
MODERATE RISK AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND
OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG NRN EXTENTION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND SPREAD SEWD DURING THE
EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS
LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND.


...FL...


STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS
ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN FL WHERE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM
AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS SRN FL TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER CNTRL
PORTIONS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT OF THE CLUSTER
OF CUMULUS IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN FL. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER W CNTRL FL WHEN
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE ERN GULF MAY MOVE ONSHORE...AND WIND
FIELDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL GULF. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 05/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.